In this report we address the topic of integrated assessment of climate change impacts in the Baltic Sea area and estimation of their possible negative effects on the city of Pärnu (Estonia). Pärnu is a health resort and port located on the coast of Pärnu Bay. The considerably low elevation (about 10 metres above sea-level) makes Pärnu city extremely vulnerable to flood events. Several issues are covered in order to give a complete picture about the driving forces and processes involved.
The outputs of regional climate models and sea level rise scenarios used in order to estimate magnitude and extend of climate change effects in the future. The application of cellular automata (CA) -based spatial modeling tool –MOLAND- made use to estimate what structural impact climate change might have in regards to local development alternatives. It may be feasible for studies of local adaptation in order to estimate the feedback of mitigation policies over planning horizon of several decades.
SAGRIS Valentina;
PETROV Laura;
LAVALLE Carlo;
2006-02-01
Office for Official Publications of the European Communities
JRC31833
EUR 21901 EN,
OP LB-NA-21901-EN-C,
http://bookshop.europa.eu/uri?target=EUB:NOTICE:LBNA21901:EN,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC31833,
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