Real Time Multi-Model Ensemble Dispersion Forecasting and Model Evaluation for Emergency Response
The paper describes the activity conducted lately towards the coupling of ENSEMBLE and EURDEP. The ENSEMBLE-EURDEP system is a unique and very powerful facility that exploits the advantages of real-time monitoring, international monitoring and modeling data exchange, ensemble dispersion forecasting and real-time forecast evaluation. The new system allows: to evaluate real-time any of the predictions produced at national level; to select the predictions that reproduced the event occurrence correctly; to use of the latter to forecast its evolution; to share this information at international level. With ENSEMBLE-EURDEP a considerable harmonization of national practices for emergency response by exploiting all the information available in the early phase of an event.
Keywords: Ensemble dispersion forecasting, ENSEMBLE, radioactivity monitoring EURDEP, real-time model to measurements comparison
GALMARINI Stefano;
BIANCONI Roberto;
2009-12-21
American Nuclear Society
JRC32059
http://www.new.ans.org/store/i_700318,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC32059,
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