Projected Changes in Mineral Soil Carbon of European Croplands and Graslands, 1990-2008

We present the most comprehensive pan-European assessment of future changes in cropland and grassland soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to date, using a dedicated process-based SOC model and state-of-the-art databases of soil, climate change, land-use change and technology change. Soil carbon change was calculated using the Rothamsted Carbon model (RothC) on a European 10x10' grid using climate data from four General Circulation Models implementing four IPCC emissions scenarios (SRES). Changes in net primary production (NPP) were calculated by the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model. Land-use change scenarios, interpreted from the narratives of the ICPP SRES story lines, were used to project changes in cropland and grassland area. Projections for 1990 to 2080 are presented for mineral soil only. When incorporating all factors, cropland and grassland soils show a small increase in soil carbon on a per area basis underr future climate (1-7 t C ha-1 for cropland and 3-6 tC ha-1 for grassland), but when the greatly ecreasing area of cropland and grassland are accounted for, total European cropland stocks decline in all scenarios and grassland stocks decline in all but one scenario. Different trends are seen in different regions. For Europe (the EU25 plus Norway and Switzerland) the cropland SOC stock decraeses from 11 Pg in 1990 by 4-6 Pg (39-54%) by 2080 and the grassland SOC stock increases from 6 Pg in 1990 by 1.5 Pg (25%) under the B1 scenario, but decreases by 1-3 Pg (20-44%) under the other scenarios.

SMITH Jo;  ZAEHLE Sonke;  HIEDERER Roland;  MONTANARELLA Luca;  REGINSTER Isabelle;  EWERT Frank; 

2006-02-17

JRC32453

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC32453,   

10.1111/j.1365-2486.2005.01075.x,