Bayesian Analysis of Flaw Sizing Data of NESC III Exercise

Non-destructive inspections are performed to give confidence on the non-existence of flaws exceeding a certain safe limit in the inspected structural component. The principal uncertainties related to these inspections are the probability of not detecting an existing flaw longer than a given size, the probability of a false call, and the uncertainty related to the sizing of a flaw. Inspection reliability models aim at accounting for these uncertainties. This paper presents the analysis of sizing uncertainty of flaws for the results of NESC III Round Robin Trials on defect-containing dissimilar metal welds. Model parameters are firstly estimated to characterize the sizing capabilities of various teams. A Bayesian updating of flaw size distribution is then demonstrated by combining information from measurement results and sizing performance.

GANDOSSI Luca;  SIMOLA Kaisa; 

2006-10-24

ELSEVIER SCI LTD

JRC33232

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC33232,