Some Considerations on the Risk Analyses for Complex Systems: Complex Systems Approaches for Safety, Security and Complex Systems Approaches for Safety, Security and Reliability (SSR 2006),

One of the main reasons to exist of the theory of risk analyses is to support the understanding and prediction of the complex systems. Engineered complex systems are one of the topics of the risk theory, but they are not the only ones. The diversity of the complex systems; technical or non technical; is one of the possible explanations of the problems encountered in unifying the risk theory. The risk theories use various methods and develop various models in order to support the understanding and predict the complex systems behavior. The paper presents some possible answers for specific cases when integrated risk models where used in the evaluation of the safety of some complex systems, like for instance nuclear power plants. The issue of the existing paradoxes and limits in risk analyses is also triggered for the specific examples presented. The insights are based on the results obtained in time on these issues, by applying the stated principles on specific cases, which are referenced in the paper

SERBANESCU Dan; 

2006-11-15

EC-JRC-IE

JRC34507