Title: Some Specifics of the Use of Probabilistic Risk Analyses as a Support to the Evaluation of Safety Margins and the Interface with the Deterministic Based Decisions
Authors: SERBANESCU DAN
Citation: Proceedings of the Technical Meeting on Effective combination of deterministic and probabilistic safety analysis in plant safety management p. Paper 29
Publisher: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Publication Year: 2006
JRC N°: JRC34618
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC34618
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: The use of PSA/PRA to support decision making process is one of the applications of this method. The use of risk based methods is of high importance for situations when the decision has to evaluate if the safety margins as set up by various requirements are still met even if changes happened to the initial nominal state for which the approval or license was issued. The safety margins are being evaluated using various tools, usually grouped in a conventional manner into deterministic or probabilistic ones. However there are fundamental issues to be clarified before using (or misusing) the results from any of those approaches and the clarifications need to be able to identify the differences induced in the decisions by using one or another of those approaches. The issue is of very high importance for cases when the nominal PRA model is in a modified state, inducing nonlinearities or cvasi-nonlinearities in the PRA model, as for instance in the case of performing special PRA studies like ageing PRA, PRA level 2 and 3 for all types of events (internal and external) performed in integrated models, applications of PRA used in a higher degree directly in the decision process. Specific theoretical and practical issues have to be solved in order to assure -a proper definition of the differences between deterministic and probabilistic tools -the role of specific tools to probabilistic approach (like for instance the sensitivity and uncertainty analyses) and the manner to conduct such analyses -evaluation of limits of information provided by each tool to support decision
JRC Directorate:Energy, Transport and Climate

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