The Transformation of Earth-System Observations into Information of Socio-Economic Value in GEOSS

The Group on Earth Observations - GEO - is a coordinated initiative by many nations to address the needs for Earth-system information expressed by the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development. We introduce the GEO initiative and discuss the role in GEO of Earth-system observations, modeling and assimilation in delivering the ;predictive products; and ‘current status assessments’ required by GEO, where the predictions are required on time scales of days to several seasons. A review of recent gains in predictive skill across these time scales, with operational systems in Europe, indicates that the gains in operational predictive skill depend on observational availability, on new science developed in modeling and assimilation of observations, and on developments in computing. We discuss recent progress in Europe in developing end-user applications of the operational predictions which will meet GEO requirements in identified areas of socio-economic benefit is discussed; examples include forecasts of storm-surges, river floods in large basins, health issues, and crop yields. The need to extend current operational Earth-system modeling and assimilation capabilities to atmospheric composition has motivated the European Union to fund a recently initiated four year project - GEMS: Global Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data. This project will build a new operational system to extend current weather operational capabilities in order to exploit a wide range of satellite data to monitor and forecast a range of atmospheric trace constituents including greenhouse gases, reactive gases and aerosols. The plans for the new system, which is expected to be operational in 2009, are reviewed. The GEO observational requirements for the period 2015-2025 and aspects of the associated costs are reviewed. We conclude with some reflections on the value of past investments in Earth observations and in Earth-system modeling systems.

DE ROO Arie; 

2007-03-13

ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOC

JRC36633