Planning for new electricity generation capacity has been traditionally performed based mainly on economic criteria, driven by the minimisation of the capital investment and operation costs. However, the choice of technologies does not affect solely the magnitude of the required capital investment but also impacts greatly on the current energy policy goals of the EU, i.e. sustainability, security of energy supply and competitiveness. This paper explores how the fossil fuel electricity generation technology mix may evolve up to 2030, based on a number of alternative scenarios for the development of the world fuel markets, the cost of carbon emissions, the role of renewable and nuclear power generating technologies, and the availability of carbon capture and storage technologies. The needs for new capacity and the optimal technology mix for each scenario are estimated along with the impacts on the European energy policy goals, in terms of resulting CO2 emissions and fuel requirements, the necessary capital investment and an average production cost of electricity.

TZIMAS Evangelos;  GEORGAKAKI Aliki;  PETEVES Estathios; 

2007-11-26

PennWell

JRC36966

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC36966,