On Some Aspects Related to the Use of Integrated Risk Analyses for the Decision Making Process and Non-nuclear Applications

Currently, several decision-support methods are being used to assess the multiple risks faced by a complex industrial-based society. Amongst these, risk analysis is a well-defined method used in the nuclear, aeronautics and chemical industries (USNRC, 1998; Haimes,2004). The feasibility of applying the Probabilistic Risk Assessment approach (USNRC, 1983) in the nuclear field (PRA-Nuc) for some new applications has been already demonstrated by using an integrated risk model of internal and external events for a Generation IV nuclear power plant (Serbanescu, 2005a) and an integrated risk model of random technical and intentional man-made events for a nuclear power plant (Serbanescu, 2007). This paper aims to show how such experiences and results can be extended and adapted to the non-nuclear sectors. These extensions have been shown to trigger two main methodological novelties: (i) more extensive use of subjective probabilities evaluations, in the case of non-nuclear applications and (ii) inclusion of hierarchical systems theory in the PRA modelling. The main aspects of the results and conclusions of the above-mentioned cases, along with insights gained during this analysis are presented and discussed in this paper. In particular, this paper is a synthesis of insights gained from modelling experiences in extending PRA-Nuc to new applications.

SERBANESCU Dan;  VETERE ARELLANO Ana Lisa;  COLLI Alessandra; 

2008-11-26

CRC Press Balkema

JRC41266

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC41266,