The ENSEMBLE Analysis for the ETEX Experiments

The results of multi-model simulations performed on both ETEX experiments by the ENSEMBLE modeling community have been investigated. Single models and the new constructed sets as percentiles of results have been compared with the observed data for ETEX-2.The behavior of the weighted models created as different combinations of multi-model results have been also investigated for two ETEX experiments. Particular emphasis has been given to the application of the Bayesian model averaging methodology for calculation of the weights for the combined models. Relatively good agreement has been found for the models based on the BMA schemes applied to two distinct ETEX experiments. Additional comparison have been made between the combined models created by the weights calculated in different manner: the BMA-based and the least square fitting with the average and two medians: the median obtained from the models¿ results of the simulations and the median calculated using probability density function resulted from the BMA scheme. In general it can be stated that for emergency response purposes the median model can be considered as a reasonable compromise.

POTEMPSKI Slawomir;  GALMARINI Stefano; 

2009-01-23

American Nuclear Society

JRC41494

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC41494,