EURODELTA II - Evaluation of a Sectoral Approach to Integrated Assessment Modelling Including the Mediterranean Sea
The EURODELTA II (ED II) project is a continuing collaboration between the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC) at Ispra (Italy) and five air quality modelling teams at Ineris (France), the Free University of Berlin (Germany), Met.no (Norway), TNO (Netherlands) and SMHI (Sweden) in which the results from air quality model simulations are brought together in the JRC assessment toolkit and compared with each other and against data.
ED I examined the common performance of the models in predicting recent (2000) and future (2020) air quality in Europe using the concept of a model ensemble to measure robustness of predictions. The spread of predictions about the ensemble gave a measure of uncertainty for each predicted value. In a 2020 world the effect of making emission reductions for key pollutants of NOx, SO2, VOC and NH3 independently in France, Germany and Italy, and of NOx and SOx in sea areas, was investigated. Source-receptor relationships used in integrated assessment (IA) modelling were derived for all the models and compared to assess how model choice might affect this key input.
ED II builds on this project by taking a closer look at how the different models represent the effect on pollutant impacts on a European scale of applying emission reductions to individual emission sectors.
A total of 60 different emission scenario calculations were run using meteorology from 1999. Sectors were defined using the SNAP97 designation and main focus was on Sectors 1,2,3,4,7 and 10 with some scenarios including sectors 6 and 8. Sector definitions are given in the introduction. Although the time-line for the scenarios is 2020 in line with the EU CAFE study and with the NECD review, an extra set of three 2010 scenarios was run for the Mediterranean Sea. These examine the effect of EU legislation requiring the use of a 0.1% S fuel for ships at berth in ports and the use of a maximum 1.5% S fuel for ferries.
The main recommendation is that, at minimum, validation calculations are carried out as part of the NEC process to examine if the implied sectoral reductions are able to deliver the intended benefits. If sectoral weights could be incorporated into the integrated assessment itself then this may lead to an overall better recommendation for emission ceilings.
ROBERTS P.;
WHITE L.;
POST L.;
TARRASON L.;
TSYRO S.;
STERN R.;
KERSCHBAUMER A.;
ROUIL L.;
BESSAGNET B.;
BERGSTRÖM Robert;
SCHAAP M.;
BOERSEN G.A.C.;
BOERSEN P.J.H.;
THUNIS Philippe;
CUVELIER Cornelis;
2008-09-03
OPOCE
JRC41801
978-92-79-09567-2,
1018-5593,
EUR 23444 EN,
OP LB-NA-23444-EN-C,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC41801,
10.2788/87066,
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