Title: On Application of the "Hot-run" Version of the ENSEMBLE System to the ECURIE Level 3 Exercise
Authors: POTEMPSKI SlawomirGALMARINI STEFANO
Publisher: OPOCE
Publication Year: 2008
JRC N°: JRC43040
ISSN: 1018-5593
Other Identifiers: EUR 23302 EN
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC43040
Type: EUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reports
Abstract: The ENSEMBLE system has been created with the primary aim of harmonizing the information coming from the various countries and to work out a reconciled European long range atmospheric dispersion ensemble forecast. The concept of multi-model ensemble dispersion forecast consists of the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the results produced by several modeling tools on the same case, to produce a composite picture that includes all contributions from the various simulations. This analysis has the advantage of taking into account all possible forecasted scenarios and to determine the level of consensus among the various modeling tools. Within ENSEMBLE the differences in atmospheric dispersion prediction become and asset as they are used to determine the forecast reliability.
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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