Armed Conflict Risk Assessment - Towards an Operational Approach

Abstract

In the field of conflict studies, automated data processing for relevant information extraction is essential to process the huge amounts of data being collected on countries and political groups. Automated quantitative information analysis can support political decision makers to make timely evaluations of the risk of severe crises. Such tools are more and more required in the framework of early warning systems. This paper aims to provide a scientifically sound approach to build a statistical model to assess quantitatively the risk of intra-state armed conflict on the global level. Particular attention is paid to the operationalization of the approach in early situation assessment.