Migratory Birds, the H5N1 Influenza Virus and the Scientific Method

Background: The role of migratory birds and of poultry trade in the dispersal of highly pathogenic H5N1 is still the topic of intense and controversial debate. In a recent contribution to this journal, Flint argues that the strict application of the scientific method can help to resolve this issue. Discussion: We argue that Flint¿s identification of the scientific method with null hypothesis testing is misleading and counterproductive. There is far more to science than the testing of hypotheses; not only the justification, bur also the discovery of hypotheses belong to science. We also show why null hypothesis testing is weak and that Bayesian methods are a preferable approach to statistical inference. Furthermore, we criticize the analogy put forward by Flint between involuntary transport of poultry and long-distance migration. Summary: To expect ultimate answers and unequivocal policy guidance from null hypothesis testing puts unrealistic expectations on a flawed approach to statistical inference and on science in general.

WEBER Thomas;  STILIANAKIS Nikolaos; 

2008-05-30

BIOMED CENTRAL LTD

JRC43926

1743-422X,   

http://www.virologyj.com/content/pdf/1743-422X-5-57.pdf,    http://www.virologyj.com/content/5/1/57,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC43926,   

10.1186/1743-422X-5-57,