On the Methods to Model and Analyze Attack Scenarios with Fault Trees

Security Risk (SR) is the term used to indicate the risk of accident caused by deliberate actions. In order to reduce SR it is necessary to reduce the vulnerability of the facility to possible attacks by identify-ing the critical assets, the attack scenarios and by evaluating the adequacy of the existing security measures. Compared with the risk due to unwanted dangerous events, security risk is a more complex problem, since it involves aspects that in the safety and reliability domain are generally overlooked. In security related applica-tions, different methods are available for the modeling and quantification of attack scenarios via the FT tech-nique. In this paper, we will briefly discuss the possibility of defining a security risk, and subsequently inves-tigate the potentialities of the fault tree technique in modeling and quantifying possible attack scenarios. In particular, the paper will elaborate on the suitability of the FT technique for quantifying an overall aggregated index (TOP event probability) for all the possible sequences leading to an identified security breach (e.g. stealing of nuclear material, sabotage, etc), giving some hints on how such quantification could be achieved.

RENDA Guido;  CONTINI Sergio;  COJAZZI Giacomo; 

2009-01-07

Taylor & Francis Group

JRC44427

http://www.esrel2008.com/index.aspx,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC44427,