Evaluation of the Medium-Range European Flood Forecasts for the March-April 2006 Flood in the Morava River

From 29th March to 09th April 2006, the Morava catchment in the Danube river basin was hit by severe flooding caused by snow melting and rainfall. Floods affected settlements and agricultural lands in Slovakia, Czech Republic and Austria. In downstream Morava, observed peak discharges exceeded the 100-year flood. The European Flood Alert System (EFAS), under development and running in pre-operational mode at the Joint Research Center of the European Commission, in partnership with Member States¿ authorities and meteorological data providers, forecasted the event more than five days in advance. This paper investigates the performance of EFAS hydrologic forecasts for this event, including their quality and usefulness. Forecasts based on deterministic and probabilistic weather forecasts are presented and verified against observed data. The analysis showed that forecasts based on probabilistic weather ensembles were able to detect an earlier signal of the flood event. The lack of consistence between simulations based on different medium-range weather forecasts was the main reason for a late diffusion of EFAS forecasts to its partner in Slovakia, with an impact on the value of the forecasts as a pre-alert. The potential benefit of ensemble hydrologic forecasts to early flood warning and increased preparedness is highlighted.

KALAS Milan;  RAMOS Maria-Helena;  THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta;  BABIAKOVA Gabriela; 

2009-01-28

VEDA

JRC46624

0042-790X,   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC46624,