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|Title:||Dairy Reform Scenarios with CAPSIM Acknowledging Quota Rent Uncertainty|
|Authors:||WITZKE Heinz Peter; TONINI Axel|
|Citation:||The 12th Congress of the European Association of Agricultural Economists p. 1-14|
|Type:||Articles in periodicals and books|
|Abstract:||The study provides an agricultural multi commodity analysis able to focus and investigate the ongoing EU milk reform. The analysis is carried with the Common Agricultural Policy SIMulation (CAPSIM) model which is a comparative-static, partial equilibrium modelling tool covering the whole of agriculture of EU member states. The model provides a reference run which is a "baseline scenario" where the 2003 CAP Reform is projected into the future. This scenario is compared to a "quota expiry" scenario where milk quotas are abolished by 2015, a "soft landing" scenario where further quota expansions are envisaged and an "early quota expiry" by 2009. Sensitivity analysis is done for different set of quota rent assumptions and export refund abolition. Key results, under a "quota expiry scenario", are that milk production would increase by 2.8% in EU27 whereas milk prices would drop by 7.5%.|
|JRC Directorate:||Growth and Innovation|
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