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|Title:||Prévision Hydrologique d'Ensemble et Alerte avec le Système Européen d'Alerte aux Crues (EFAS): Cas des Cues du Bassin du Danube en Août 2005|
|Authors:||RAMOS Maria-Helena; THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta; DE ROO Arie|
|Publisher:||HERMES Sciences Lavoisier|
|Type:||Articles in periodicals and books|
|Abstract:||From the 22nd until 27th August 2005, the northern Alpine region was hit by severe floods. The floods occurred in tributaries of the Rhine River in Switzerland and Austria (Vorarlberg) and in several tributaries of the Danube River in Germany (Iller, Lech, Isar), Austria (Lech, Inn, Mur, Drau/Drava, Raab/Raba) and Hungary (Mur and Raba/Raab), as well as in the German part of the main Danube. The European Flood Alert System (EFAS), under development and running in pre-operational mode at the Joint Research Center (JRC) since February 2003 (http://efas.jrc.ec.europa.eu/), forecasted these events and reported in real time to its partners¿ organizations in the Member States. This paper briefly describes what was forecasted with the EFAS system for the Upper Danube and illustrates the potential benefit of probabilistic forecasting to increasing warning time and preparedness for flood events. The case study analysis is supported by a statistical analysis on the performance of EFAS for the Danube river basin during a 3-month period in summer 2005.|
|JRC Directorate:||Sustainable Resources|
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