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dc.contributor.authorVAUTARD Roberten_GB
dc.contributor.authorSCHAAP M.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorBERGSTRÖM Roberten_GB
dc.contributor.authorBESSAGNET B.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorBRANDT J.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorBUILTJES P.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorCHRISTENSEN Jesperen_GB
dc.contributor.authorCUVELIER Cornelisen_GB
dc.contributor.authorFOLTESCU Valentinen_GB
dc.contributor.authorGRAFF A.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorKERSCHBAUMER A.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorKROL Maartenen_GB
dc.contributor.authorROBERTS P.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorROUIL L.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorSTERN R.en_GB
dc.contributor.authorTARRASON Leonoren_GB
dc.contributor.authorTHUNIS Philippeen_GB
dc.contributor.authorVIGNATI Elisabettaen_GB
dc.contributor.authorWIND P.en_GB
dc.identifier.citationATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT vol. 43 no. 31 p. 4822-4832en_GB
dc.description.abstractRecently several regional air quality projects were carried out to support the negotiation under the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme by predicting the impact of emission control policies with an ensemble of models. Within these projects, CITYDELTA and EURODELTA, the fate of air quality at the scale of European cities or that of the European continent was studied using several models. In this article we focus on the results of EURODELTA. The predictive skill of the ensemble of models is described for ozone, nitrogen dioxide and secondary inorganic compounds, and the uncertainty in air quality modelling is examined through the model ensemble spread of concentrations. For ozone daily maxima the ensemble spread origin differs from one region to another. In the neighbourhood of cities or in mountainous areas the spread of predicted values does not span the range of observed data, due to poorly resolved emissions or complex-terrain meteorology. By contrast in Atlantic and North-Sea coastal areas the spread of predicted values is found to be larger than the observations. This is attributed to large differences in the boundary conditions used in the different models. For NO2 daily averages the ensemble spread is generally too small compared with observations. This is because models miss highest values occurring in stagnant meteorology in stable boundary layers near cities. For secondary particulate matter compounds the simulated concentration spread is more balanced, observations falling nearly equiprobably within the ensemble, and the spread originates both from meteorology and aerosol chemistry and thermodynamics.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipJRC.DDG.H.2-Climate changeen_GB
dc.titleSkill and Uncertainty of a Regional Air Quality Model Ensembleen_GB
dc.typeArticles in periodicals and booksen_GB
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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