Modelling the impact of post-2006 agricultural policy scenarios on farm behaviour: The case of arable farms in France and Italy

The objective of the paper is to model the effects of several policy and price scenarios between 2006 and 2021 on a few French and Italian arable farm households. It uses multi-criteria dynamic programming model of farm households, calibrated on primary data from a survey of single farms through a questionnaire. Simulation results show that, intuitively, reducing or cutting payments from 2013 onwards (Scenarios 3) have a stronger negative impact on farming activities than maintaining them (Scenarios 2). However, a reduction in payments has a less pronounced impact on income from farming than a decrease in prices. But combination of price decrease and payment reduction may lead to abandonment by some farms. Results also highlight that adaptation of farm activities is more important than investment as a reaction to both policy and price changes.

GOMEZ Y PALOMA Sergio;  VIAGGI Davide;  RAGGI Meri;  LATRUFFE Laure;  DESJEUX Yann; 

2009-07-21

INRA

JRC48447

http://www.prodinra.inra.fr/prodinra/pinra/doc.xsp?id=PROD20095e233231&uri=%2Fnotices%2Fprodinra1%2F2009%2F05&base=notices&qid=sdx_q0&p=1&n=14&s=2&vue=abrege,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC48447,