Error-Correction Methods and Evaluation of an Ensemble Based Hydrological Forecasting System for the Upper Danube Catchment

Abstract

Within the EU Project PREVention, Information and Early Warning (PREVIEW), ensembles of discharge series have been generated for the Danube catchment by the use of various weather forecast products. Hydrological models applied for streamflow prediction often have simulation errors that degrade forecast quality and limit the operational usefulness of the forecasts. Therefore, error-correction methods have been tested for adjusting the ensemble traces using a transformation derived with simulated and observed flows. This article presents first results of the combination of state-space models and wavelet transformations in order to update errors between the simulated (forecasted) and the observed discharge.