EPS/EFAS Probabilistic Flood Prediction Over Northern Italy: The Case of 30 April 2009
ENSEMBLE hydrological predictions generated by the European Union Joint Research Centre European Flood Alert System (JRC EFAS) driven by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) have been used to assess the risk of flooding of the Po¿ river at the end of April 2009. This case illustrates the added value of using probabilistic flood predictions to signal the possible occurrence of flooding, and confirms statistically-based results published in the scientific literature. It shows that the key advantage of ensemble prediction systems,compared to systems that rely on one single forecast, is that they can be used not only to identify the most likely outcome, but also to assess the probability of occurrence of extreme/rare events.
BUIZZA Roberto;
PAPPENBERGER Florian;
SALAMON Peter;
THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta;
DE ROO Arie;
2009-09-10
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
JRC52282
http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/120.pdf,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC52282,
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