Progress in the Implementation of Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) in Europe for Operational Flood Forecasting

The past decade has seen the operational flood forecasting community increasingly using Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) for their forecasts. Many research studies over the past decade have shown that HEPS-based forecasts add value and can increase warning lead times. However, despite this, at present only a few flood forecasting centres around the world implement HEPS flood forecasting systems operationally (for a summary see Cloke & Pappenberger, 2009). There are many reasons for this, including a range of scientific, technical and cultural issues. For example, HEPS must receive and process large amounts of data generated by medium-range Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) weather forecasts (Thielen et al., 2008; Zappa et al., 2008). Furthermore, the computational burden of computing the flood forecasts themselves is also significant, as are the difficulties in understanding how best to base flood warning decisions on probabilistic forecasts.

CLOKE Hannah;  THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta;  PAPPENBERGER Florian;  NOBERT Sébastien;  BALINT Gábor;  EDLUND Cristina;  KOISTINEN Ari;  DE SAINT-AUBIN Céline;  SPROKKEREEF Erik;  VIEL Christian;  SALAMON Peter;  BUIZZA Roberto; 

2009-12-09

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

JRC53960

http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/newsletters/pdf/121.pdf,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC53960,