Title: A MonteCarlo Approach for Assessing the Adequacy of European Gas Transmission System under Supply Crisis Conditions
Authors: MONFORTI-FERRARIO FabioSZIKSZAI ANDRAS
Citation: ENERGY POLICY vol. 38 no. 5 p. 2486-2498
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Publication Year: 2010
JRC N°: JRC54219
ISSN: 0301-4215
URI: www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC54219
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2009.12.043
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: Europe's dependency on non-EU countries` energy supply is sharply increasing and in some recent occasions sudden supply disruption caused by non-EU international disputes have created serious problems in some EU countries and diffused concern in many others. In such a situation, it is highly desirable to have a tool to detect possible outcomes of supply disruptions. The paper presents a newly developed model, named MC-GENERCIS, aimed to assessing the robustness of the EU transnational gas transmission system during both normal and special operational conditions, including high demand situations and/or a supply shortage. The model has a country-by-country resolution and examines all the possible dispatching choices of national TSOs on the basis of the so-called probabilistic MonteCarlo approach. The preliminary validation of the model through its application to the ¿normal¿ conditions for winter 2008-2009 and to the recent supply disruption involving Ukrainian gas is also described.
JRC Directorate:Energy, Transport and Climate

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