A MonteCarlo Approach for Assessing the Adequacy of European Gas Transmission System under Supply Crisis Conditions
Europe's dependency on non-EU countries` energy supply is sharply increasing and in some recent occasions sudden supply disruption caused by non-EU international disputes have created serious problems in some EU countries and diffused concern in many others. In such a situation, it is highly desirable to have a tool to detect possible outcomes of supply disruptions. The paper presents a newly developed model, named MC-GENERCIS, aimed to assessing the robustness of the EU transnational gas transmission system during both normal and special operational conditions, including high demand situations and/or a supply shortage. The model has a country-by-country resolution and examines all the possible dispatching choices of national TSOs on the basis of the so-called probabilistic MonteCarlo approach. The preliminary validation of the model through its application to the ¿normal¿ conditions for winter 2008-2009 and to the recent supply disruption involving Ukrainian gas is also described.
MONFORTI-FERRARIO Fabio;
SZIKSZAI Andras;
2010-06-24
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
JRC54219
0301-4215,
www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC54219,
10.1016/j.enpol.2009.12.043,
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