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|Title:||A MonteCarlo Approach for Assessing the Adequacy of European Gas Transmission System under Supply Crisis Conditions|
|Authors:||MONFORTI-FERRARIO Fabio; SZIKSZAI ANDRAS|
|Citation:||ENERGY POLICY vol. 38 no. 5 p. 2486-2498|
|Publisher:||ELSEVIER SCI LTD|
|Type:||Articles in periodicals and books|
|Abstract:||Europe's dependency on non-EU countries` energy supply is sharply increasing and in some recent occasions sudden supply disruption caused by non-EU international disputes have created serious problems in some EU countries and diffused concern in many others. In such a situation, it is highly desirable to have a tool to detect possible outcomes of supply disruptions. The paper presents a newly developed model, named MC-GENERCIS, aimed to assessing the robustness of the EU transnational gas transmission system during both normal and special operational conditions, including high demand situations and/or a supply shortage. The model has a country-by-country resolution and examines all the possible dispatching choices of national TSOs on the basis of the so-called probabilistic MonteCarlo approach. The preliminary validation of the model through its application to the ¿normal¿ conditions for winter 2008-2009 and to the recent supply disruption involving Ukrainian gas is also described.|
|JRC Directorate:||Energy, Transport and Climate|
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