Chapter 11. Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on Inorganic Nitrogen

In this chapter, we describe how we used an established catchment model to quantify the effects of both observed and projected changes in the climate on the loading of DIN to lakes and rivers in five European catchments. Increases in nitrogen loads are anticipated for regions where future climate projections are for warmer, wetter conditions (Fink and Kralisch, 2005; Jöborn et al., 2005 and Chapter 2, this volume). A related chapter (Chapter 10) explores the effect of year-to-year changes in the weather on the supply and recycling of nitrate in lakes and assesses their likely response to future changes in the climate. The model used in our study is the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions model (GWLF). The basic structure of the model has already been described in Chapter 3, and Chapter 9 explains how it was used to simulate the effects of future changes in the climate on the supply of phosphate-phosphorus. Here, we use the same approach to estimate future DIN loads using inputs from the same Regional Climate Models perturbed by the same emissions scenarios (IPCC SRES A2 and B2). Details of the six climate scenarios used are given in Chapter 2 and summarized in Table 11.1. This chapter includes an assessment of the DIN model performance, an overview of the DIN loading projections and a discussion of the implications of the projected changes in the DIN flux for the seasonal dynamics of the selected lakes. The examples presented are taken from catchments in Northern and Western Europe and the lakes cover a range of different sizes and trophic state.

MOORE Karen;  JENNINGS Eleanor;  ALLOTT Norman;  MAY Linda;  JARVINEN Marko;  ARVOLA Lauri;  TAMM Toomas;  JARVET Arvo;  NOGES Tiina;  PIERSON Don;  SCHNEIDERMAN Elliot; 

2010-01-26

Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

JRC54779

978-90-481-2945-4,   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC54779,   

10.1007/978-90-481-2945-4_11,