From Real Time Border Monitoring to a Permeability Model

International Migration has risen to the top of the global policy agenda. This paper assesses the potential use of satellite imagery to monitor flows of people across borders. The objective of this "border monitoring" assessement is to contribute to the development of scenarios on potential future migartion through land borders and to develop recommendations for border management. The study begins with an assessement of statistical and earth observation information datasets to monitor border crossing in real time. Due to the unavailabity of relevant data, this study evolved towards an indirect definition of migrants' likelihood to cross the border (the border permeability). The permeability model combines earth observation and geo-spatial technologies with formal decision theory to assess the likelihood that a border area may be crossed by an illegal migrant, based on a presumed cost/oppportunity behavioural strategy. Two preliminary permeability models were developed on two different areas, the EU-25 land border and the Central African region. The resulting permeability maps help in the overall understanding of illegal migration patterns. In the border monitoring process, they help to identify high permeability areas where change detection analysis can be carried out using medium resolution satellite imagery.

STEPHENNE Nathalie;  MAGONI Raphaele;  LANEVE Giovanni; 

2009-10-26

Springer Netherlands

JRC55042

978-1-4020-8483-6 (print),    978-1-4020-8484-3,   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC55042,   

10.1007/978-1-4020-8484-3,