Title: Projecting Future Burnt Area in the EU-Mediterranean Countries under IPCC SRES A2/B2 Climate Change Scenarios
Citation: Proceedings of the VII International EARSeL Workshop - Advances on Remote Sensing and GIS applications in Forest Fire Management p. 33-38
Publisher: Il Segno
Publication Year: 2009
JRC N°: JRC55149
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC55149
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: The goal of this work is to use the results of statistical modeling of historical (1985-2004) monthly burnt areas in European Mediterranean countries, as a function of monthly weather data and derived fire danger indexes, and to analyse potential trends under present and future climate conditions. Meteorological variables were extracted from the ECMWF, and the FWI system components were computed from 1961 until 2004. Monthly averages of the indexes were used as explanatory variables in a stepwise multiple linear regression analysis, to estimate the monthly burnt areas in each of the five most affected Mediterranean countries of Europe. Significant regression equations and satisfactory coefficient of determinations were found, although with remarkable differences among countries. Two IPCC SRES climate change scenarios (A2/B2) were simulated using the the regional climate model HIRHAM. The multiple regression models were than applied to the A2/B2 scenarios results to predict the potential burnt areas in each country. The models pointed out tangible changes in the potential burnt area extent for the future scenarios compared to the actual conditions.
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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