Subannual Models for Catchment Management: Evaluating Model Performance on Three European Catchments
Models¿ abilities to predict nutrient losses at subannual timesteps is highly significant for evaluating
policy measures, as it enables trends and the frequency of exceedance of water quality thresholds to be
predicted. Subannual predictions also permit assessments of seasonality in nutrient concentrations,
which are necessary to determine susceptibility to eutrophic conditions and the impact of management
practices on water quality. Predictions of subannual concentrations are pertinent to EC Directives,
whereas load estimates are relevant to the 50% target reduction in nutrient loading to the maritime area
under OSPAR. This article considers the ability of four models (ranging from conceptual to fully
mechanistic), to predict river flows, concentrations and loads of nitrogen and phosphorus on
a subannual basis in catchments in Norway, England, and Italy. Results demonstrate that model
performance deemed satisfactory on an annual basis may conceal considerable divergence in
performance when scrutinised on a weekly or monthly basis. In most cases the four models performed
satisfactorily, and mismatches between measurements and model predictions were primarily ascribed to
the limitations in input data (soils in the Norwegian catchment; weather in the Italian catchment).
However, results identified limitations in model conceptualisation associated with the damping and
lagging effect of a large lake leading to contrasts in model performance upstream and downstream of
this feature in the Norwegian catchment. For SWAT applied to the Norwegian catchment, although
flow predictions were reasonable, the large number of parameters requiring identification, and the lack
of familiarity with this environment, led to poor predictions of river nutrient concentrations.
SILGRAM M.;
SCHOUMANS O.;
WALVOORT D.;
ANTHONY .;
GROENENDIJK P.;
STROMQVIST J.;
BOURAOUI Faycal;
ARHEIMER B.;
KAPETANAKI M.;
LO PORTO A.;
MARTENSSON K.;
2011-01-17
ROYAL SOC CHEMISTRY
JRC55454
1464-0325,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC55454,
10.1039/B823250D,
Additional supporting files
File name | Description | File type | |