Ensemble Flood Forecasting in Africa: A Feasibility Study in the Juba-Shabelle River Basin
The European Flood Alert System (EFAS) achieves early flood warnings for large to medium-size river basins with lead times of 10 days. This is based on probabilistic weather forecasts, the exceedance of alert thresholds and persistence. The methodologies have been tested for different events and time scales in mid-latitude basins in Europe. In this paper, the transferability of the EFAS-methodologies to equatorial African basins is assessed on the example of the Juba-Shabelle river basin using a variety of different meteorological data sources. In this context ERA-40 and CHARM have been used for the calculation of climatologies; re-forecasts of the current operational ECMWF model provided hindcasts of historic flood events. The results show that flood events have been detected successfully in more than 85 % of all cases, with a high accuracy in terms of timing and magnitude.
THIEMIG Vera;
PAPPENBERGER Florian;
THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta;
GADAIN Hussein;
DE ROO Arie;
BODIS Katalin;
DEL MEDICO Mauro;
MUTHUSI Flavian;
2010-06-23
WILEY-V C H VERLAG GMBH
JRC55599
1530-261X,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC55599,
10.1002/asl.266,
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