Title: Biofuels: A model based assessment under uncertainty applying the Monte Carlo method
Citation: JOURNAL OF POLICY MODELING vol. 33 no. 1 p. 92-126
Publication Year: 2011
JRC N°: JRC56690
ISSN: 0161-8938
URI: www.elsevier.com/locate/jpm
DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2010.10.008
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: The deployment of biofuels depends on a variety of factors, some of which are inherently uncertain such as the outlook on the oil and feedstock prices or progress in advanced biofuel conversion technologies. The present paper systematically assesses the response of a biofuel simulation model under uncertainty, making use of the Monte Carlo method. On this basis, the expected opportunity losses are calculated for two theoretical biofuel policies. The paper demonstrates that such an approach allows ranking distinct policy options with regard to their risk levels despite the prevalence of important uncertainties in parameters.
JRC Directorate:Growth and Innovation

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