Dynamics of infectious disease transmission by inhalable respiratory droplets

Transmission of respiratory infectious diseases in humans, for instance influenza, occurs by several modes. Respiratory droplets provide a vector of transmission of an infectious pathogen that may contribute to different transmission modes. An epidemiological model incorporating the dynamics of inhalable respiratory droplets is developed to assess their relevance in the infectious process. Inhalable respiratory droplets are divided into respirable droplets, diameter less than 10$\mu$m, and inspirable droplets, diameter in the range 10 to 100$\mu$m: both droplet classes may be inhaled or settle. Droplet dynamics is determined by their physical properties (size), whereas population dynamics by, among other parameters, the pathogen infectivity and the host contact rates. Three model influenza epidemic scenarios, mediated by different airborne or settled droplet classes, are analyzed. The scenarios are distinguished by the characteristic times associated with breathing at contact and with hand-to-face contact. The scenarios suggest that airborne transmission, mediated by respirable droplets, provides the dominant transmission mode in middle and long-term epidemics, whereas inspirable droplets, be they airborne or settled, characterise short-term epidemics with high attack rates. The model neglects close-contact transmission by droplet sprays (direct projection onto facial mucous membranes), retaining close-contact transmission by inspirable droplets.

STILIANAKIS Nikolaos;  DROSSINOS Ioannis; 

2010-08-03

ROYAL SOC

JRC56931

1742-5689,   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC56931,   

10.1098/rsif.2010.0026,