Several techniques have been developed over the last decade for the ensemble treatment of atmospheric dispersion model predictions. Among them two have received most of the attention, the multi-model and the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) modeling. The multi-model approach relies on model simulations produced by different atmospheric dispersion models using meteorological data from potentially different weather prediction systems. The EPS-based ensemble is generated by running a single atmospheric dispersion model with the ensemble weather prediction members. In the paper we compare both approaches with the help of statistical indicators, using simulations performed for the ETEX-1 tracer experiment. Both ensembles are also evaluated against measurement data.
GALMARINI Stefano;
BONNARDOT Francois;
JONES Andrew;
POTEMPSKI Slawomir;
ROBERTSON Lennart;
MARTET Maud;
2010-08-31
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
JRC57350
1352-2310,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC57350,
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.06.003,
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