ELPIS: A Dataset of Local-Scale Daily Climate Scenarios for Europe

We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate scenarios for Europe. This 3 dataset is based on the 25 km grid interpolated daily precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature and radiation from the European CGSM meteorological data and climate predictions from the 6 multi-model ensemble of fifteen global climate models used in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. The site parameters for the distributions of climatic variables have been estimated by the LARS-WG weather generator for nearly 12000 grids for the ¿baseline¿ period of 1982- 9 2008. Using changes in climate predicted by global climate models, we perturbed site parameters for the baseline climate in order to be able to generate local-scale daily climate scenarios for the 2020s, 2045s and 2080s and several emission scenarios. The ability of 12 LARS-WG to reproduce observed weather for the period of 1982-2008 was assessed using statistical tests. This dataset was designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models, such as crop simulation models, for assessment of the impacts of climate 15 change in Europe. A climate scenario generated by LARS-WG for a grid represents daily weather for the baseline or future periods at a typical site from this grid used for agricultural production. This makes it different from the recently developed E-OBS gridded dataset which 18 gives the best estimate of grid box averages to enable direct comparison with regional climate models.

SEMENOV Mikhail;  DONATELLI Marcello;  CHATZIDAKI Efthymia;  STRATONOVITCH Marc;  BARUTH Bettina; 

2011-01-17

INTER-RESEARCH

JRC57353

0936-577X,   

http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr_oa/c044p003.pdf,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC57353,   

10.3354/cr00865,