Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems
In this paper the properties of a hydro-meteorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a fixed event forecast index (FEFI). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster's approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A high FEFI indicates a more inconsistent forecast. It can be demonstrated that the annual maxima of FEFI decreases over the last 10 years; ensemble forecast, control and high resolution forecast have a different behaviour. The FEFI is influenced by the threshold, catchment size and catchment location. It indicates that one should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings.
PAPPENBERGER Florian;
BOGNER Konrad;
WETTERHALL Frederick;
YI He;
CLOKE Hannah;
THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta;
2011-03-21
Copernicus GMBH
JRC59328
1680-7340,
www.adv-geosci.net/29/27/2011/,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC59328,
10.5194/adgeo-29-27-2011,
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