Flash flood detection through a multi-stage probabilistic warning system for heavy precipitation events

Because of the deadly combination of short to no warning lead times and the devastating effects on urbanized areas, flash flood events are extremely dangerous for the modern society. This paper contributes to flash flood early warning by proposing a multi-stage warning system based on rainfall threshold exceedances within a probabilistic framework. It makes use of meteorological products at different resolution, namely, numerical weather predictions (NWP), radar-NWP blending, and radar nowcasting. The system is composed by two main modules. First, a European Precipitation Index based on a simulated Climatology (EPIC) and probabilistic weather forecasts is calculated to pinpoint catchments at risk of upcoming heavy precipitation. Then, a Probabilistic Flash Flood Guidance System (PFFGS) is activated at the regional scale and uses more accurate input data to reduce the estimation uncertainty as the events approach. The system is tested for an event of high flow occurred in Catalonia (Spain) in November 2008 and results from the different meteorological input data are compared and discussed.

ALFIERI Lorenzo;  VELASCO David;  THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta; 

2011-03-21

Copernicus

JRC59819

1680-7340,   

www.adv-geosci.net/29/69/2011/,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC59819,   

10.5194/adgeo-29-69-2011,