Title: A Review of Scenarios for Transport in a Carbon Constrained 2050
Authors: PRIDMORE ALISON
Citation: Proceedings of the 43rd Annual Universities' Transport Studies Group (UTSG) Conference
Publisher: Universities' Transport Studies Group (UTSG)
Publication Year: 2011
JRC N°: JRC61711
URI: http://www.utsg.net/conf.php
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC61711
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: In light of the large and growing role that the transport sector holds as a source of Greenhouse Gas emissions, an emerging literature now addresses how it could contribute to reduction targets by 2050. Different studies come to varying conclusions about the potential for transport to pull its weight. This paper reports on a comparative overview of the scenarios-based literature, to identify the key areas of commonality, departure and uncertainty. Firstly, it will review the role that the transport sector is expected to take vis a vis other sectors, focusing on the European context. Secondly, it will report on the expectations for different modes in achieving carbon reductions within the sector. For instance, across the studies reviewed, the greatest reductions are expected to come from private road transport. This reflects changes that occur under business as usual scenarios - the stabilisation of car traffic and growth in other sectors, but also signals the availability of measures to reduce emissions. Thirdly, what is the contribution from and what are the key measures identified? Technological change is expected to contribute between 60% and 85% of total transport emissions savings. The studies differ on how this change could be achieved. In the private road transport sector the rate at which and how petrol and diesel are replaced varies according to critical assumptions about the use and availability of sustainable biofuels, carbon neutral electricity and the costs, and associated take up, of new technologies. Changes in other modes, including air and shipping, broadly speaking, focus on biofuels and improvements in conventional vehicle technology. The electrification of rail is a consistent theme in the studies. Finally, behavioural change though largely confined to the private road passenger and aviation sectors, is concluded to be an essential ingredient in most studies, contributing between 15 to 40% of savings. To achieve this change pricing mechanisms, across all sectors, are typically required. In addition, the shortening of distances travelled by car and the associated use of walk, cycle and public transport modes is prominent. For short haul aviation, modal shift to rail is commonly assumed.
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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