The Copenhagen Accord: Abatement Costs and Carbon Prices Resulting from the Submissions

As part of the Copenhagen Accord, individual countries have submitted greenhouse gas reduction proposals for the year 2020. This paper analyses the implications for emission reductions, the carbon price, and abatement costs of these submissions. The submissions of theAnnex I (industrialised) countries are estimated tolead toa total reductiontarget of 12¿18% below 1990 levels. The submissions of the seven major emerging economies are estimated to lead to an 11¿14% reduction belowbaseline emissions, depending on international (financial) support. Global abatement costs in 2020 are estimated at about USD 60¿100 billion, assuming that at leasttwo-thirdsofAnnexIemissionreductiontargetsneedtobeachieveddomestically. ThelargestshareofthesecostsareincurredbyAnnexIcountries,althoughthecostsasshareof GDP are similar for Annex I as a group and the seven emerging economies as a group, even when assuming substantial international transfers from Annex I countries to the emerging economies to finance their abatement costs. If the restriction of achieving two-thirds of the emission reduction target domestically is abandoned, itwouldmore than double the international carbon price and at the same time reduce global abatement costs by almost 25%.

DEN ELZEN Michel;  HOF Andries;  MENDOZA BELTRAN Angelica;  GRASSI Giacomo;  ROELFSEMA Mark;  VAN RUIJVEN Bas;  VAN VLIET Jasper;  VAN VUUREN Detlev; 

2011-12-01

ELSEVIER SCI LTD

JRC61933

1462-9011,   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC61933,   

10.1016/j.envsci.2010.10.010,