Ensemble Hydrological Forecasting and Alert with the European Flood Alert System (EFAS): Case of the Danube Basin Floods in August 2005

Between August 22 and 27, 2005, the North of France¿s Alpine region was hit by serious flooding. The floods occurred on the tributaries of the Rhine in Switzerland and in Austria (Vorarlberg) and on several of Danube¿s tributaries in Germany (Iller, Lech, Isar), in Austria (Lech, Inn, Mur, Drau/Drava, Raab/Raba) and in Hungary (Mur and Raba/Raab). The European Flood Alert System (EFAS) forecast these events and signaled them in real time to the hydrological departments of those European Member States that are partners of the EFAS project. The EFAS is undergoing development at the European Commission¿s Joint Research Center (JRC) and has been functioning in pre-operational mode since February 2003 (http://efas.jrc.ec.europa.eu/). This study briefly describes what was forecast by EFAS for the Upper Danube in August 2005, and it illustrates the potential contribution of probabilistic forecasts to increasing the forecast period and anticipating flood events. The case study is completed by a statistical analysis of the performance of the EFAS forecasts, conducted on the whole of the Danube basin over a period of three months during the Summer of 2005.

RAMOS Maria-Helena;  THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta;  DE ROO Arie; 

2011-01-05

WileyISTE

JRC62579

978-1-84821-152-0,   

http://eu.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-184821152X%2CsubjectCd-MA21.html,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC62579,