Potential Vehicle Fleet CO2 Reductions and Cost Implications for Various Vehicle Technology Deployment Scenarios in Europe

The continuous rise in transport demand in Europe has a significant effect on Europe¿s oil dependency and emissions of greenhouse gases. Alternative fuels and vehicle technology can mitigate these effects. This study analyses powertrain deployment scenarios for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in Europe for the 2010 to 2050 time horizon. It considers European policy developments on vehicle CO2 emissions, bioenergy mandates, and reductions in the CO2 footprint of the European energy mix and translates these into comprehensive scenarios for the road transport sector. It quantifies and assesses the potential impact of these scenarios on the vehicle technology portfolio, reductions in CO2 emissions and energy demand, and cost aspects for vehicle owners. The study reveals that the deployment of battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles can decrease CO2 emissions in road transport considerably as they would benefit from the future lower carbon electricity mix in Europe. For fuel cell vehicles this would only be the case if lower carbon pathways are used for the production of hydrogen. The deployment of electric drive vehicles can largely reduce the energy demand in road transport. Learning effects can lead to acceptable pay-back periods for vehicle owners of electric drive vehicles.

PASAOGLU KILANC Guzay;  HONSELAAR Michel;  THIEL Christian; 

2011-12-14

ELSEVIER SCI LTD

JRC63001

0301-4215,   

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511008093,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC63001,   

10.1016/j.enpol.2011.10.025,