Title: Developments in energy use for transport in 27 European Union countries through 2030: Outcome of iTREN-2030 project
Citation: TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD no. 2252 p. 31-39
Publication Year: 2011
JRC N°: JRC63886
ISSN: 0361-1981
URI: http://www.trb.org/Finance/TRRJournalOnline1.aspx
DOI: 10.3141/2252-05
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: The aim of this paper is to analyse the impact of transport policies and the renewable energy package on the energy use and the emissions of transport in EU27. The paper is based on the EU-co-funded project 'iTREN-2030' that aimed developed consistent energy and transport scenarios for the EU27, applying a set of different models. The model-suite that has been linked in iTREN-2030 included POLES, a simulation model the development of long-term (2050) energy supply and demand scenarios for the different regions of the world, TREMOVE, ASTRA and Transtools. These models have been applied in an interactive way to create two main scenarios: ¿ the reference scenario includes only policies approved by mid 2008 (Reference Scenario). It is a set of projections under given, reasonable assumptions concerning both the socio-economic environment and a kind of frozen policy environment. The iTREN-2030 Reference Scenario does not assume relevant shocks in the exogenous elements. In particular, the global economic crisis that started in 2008 is not reflected in the modelling estimations. Nevertheless, the economic forecast applied in iTREN-2030 was already moderate and at the lower end of available projections. ¿ the renewable scenario considering policies which are likely to be implemented until 2025 (Integrated Scenario). Several policy instruments are implemented on top of the measures included in the reference scenario. On the transport side the regulation of CO2 emission for different types of transport vehicles has to be mentioned. On the energy side the renewable energy package is expected to have a major impact on the energy system. The main policy instruments which are investigated are the carbon value (to reduce 20% of the GHG emissions until 2020) and the renewable energy support schemes (to increase the renewable share of final demand to 20% until 2020). Furthermore, the Integrated Scenario considers the global economic crisis. A comparison of the results of the two scenarios was carried out. It clearly indicates significant changes in the energy and transport system between the two scenarios, e.g. In the Integrated Scenario, final energy demand in the transport sector will see negative growth rates, whereas it would continue to grow in the Reference Scenario. Moreover, alternative transport fuels like biofuels, gas and electricity will play a more important role in the integrated scenario. As a consequence of the lower demand and accelerated decarbonisation, greenhouse gas emissions of transport will be reduced by some 7% between 2005 and 2020, and by 12% by 2030.
JRC Directorate:Growth and Innovation

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