There Is No Such Thing as an Average: How Farmers Manage Uncertainty Related to Climate and Other Factors

Managing uncertainty related to climate variability has always been at the core of all agricultural activities. For farmers across the world, the concept of average rainfall is often less important than its dispersion and distribution during the cropping season. In most developing countries, farming practices are based on risk-mitigation strategies that do not allow for the development of highly productive agriculture, but mitigate the risks associated with the variability of climate and of other factors like markets or freshwater availability. The paper reviews the concept of average precipitation and discusses the stochastic nature of climate variables. It addresses the relationship between climate and crop production and related farmers¿ behaviour, and discusses the different tools and approaches that are available to anticipate, mitigate or compensate for the negative effects of climate variability in agricultural production.

FAURÈS Jean-Marc;  BERNARDI Michele;  GOMMES Rene; 

2011-04-28

ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS

JRC64286

0790-0627,   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC64286,   

10.1080/07900627.2010.519515,