Title: Decadal trends in 50-year biogeochemical model simulations of the North Aegean Sea
Publisher: Publications Office of the European Union
Publication Year: 2011
JRC N°: JRC66112
ISBN: 978-92-79-20915-4 (print), 978-92-79-20916-1 (PDF)
ISSN: 1018-5593 (print), 1831-9424 (online)
Other Identifiers: EUR 24908 EN
OPOCE LB-NA-24908-EN-C (print), LB-NA-24908-EN-N (PDF)
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC66112
DOI: 10.2788/4311
Type: EUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reports
Abstract: This study examines 50 years (from 1960 to 2009) of physical- biogeochemical simulations of the North Aegean Sea in order to detect the past variability and decadal changes in the surface fields. We examine the decadal trend and variations at surface of the physical variables of the North Aegean Sea, as well as the bloom/no bloom occurrences. Furthermore we apply novel statistical methods to distinguish between linear trends and breakpoints (change points) in the time series. The identification of concurrent breakpoints in many different variables will provide supporting evidence for the detection of potential regime shifts. We select 3 sub-domains of the North Aegean Sea which have very distinct dynamics from each other. The first is the area of main impact of the Dardanelles discharge where waters originally from the Black Sea enter the Aegean Sea. The second area is a riverine discharge area in the west Aegean (Greek) coast (River Strymonas). The third sub-domain is located offshore in the south in an area with neither rivers nor Dardanelles-discharge direct and immediate interaction. The decadal mean of the simulated chlorophyll of the first and the last decade are respectively the lowest and the highest value found and the difference is significant.
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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