Statistical Analysis of a Repository Design in Argillaceous Rock

As part of the PAMINA project, which was conducted within the 6th framework programme of the European Commission, a probabilistic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been performed for a generic repository in clay. The objective of the analysis was to test and demonstrate the applicability of combining tools for Performance Assessment calculations and statistical analyses, so to assess the radiological consequences of variations of important system parameters. NRG has performed the PA calculations for a repository design in Boom Clay, assuming an abandonment scenario. The probabilistic analysis focused on variation of the dissolution rate of the emplaced vitrified waste, the apparent diffusion coefficient in the host rock and the composition of the disposal cell sealing plug on the dose rates to the biosphere. JRC-IE performed the statistical analyses. Several methods were applied to quantify the uncertainties and their dependence on the variability of the input parameters. The statistical analysis included an uncertainty evaluation (mean, standard deviation, skewness, kurtosis and percentiles) as well as a sensitivity analysis (R2, SRRC, Smirnow and Mann-Whitney tests, CSM plots and cobweb plots). The paper summarizes the results of the PA calculations and the statistical analyses, and evaluates the applicability and limitations of the applied methodologies

SCHRÖDER T.J.;  ROSCA-BOCANCEA E.;  HART J;  COSTESCU-BADEA Anca;  BOLADO LAVIN Ricardo; 

2012-07-19

America Nuclear Society

JRC67559

9781617828508,