Visualising probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication

The aim of this paper is to understand and to contribute to improved communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Systems (HEPS) with particular focus on the inter expert communication. Different users are likely to require different kinds of information from HEPS and thus different visualizations. The perceptions of this expert group are important both because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to non-experts. In this paper we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this paper we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable.

PAPPENBERGER Florian;  STEPHENS Elisabeth;  THIELEN DEL POZO Jutta;  SALAMON Peter;  DEMERRITT David;  VAN ANDEL Schalk Jan;  WETTERHALL Fredrik;  ALFIERI Lorenzo; 

2012-12-31

WILEY-BLACKWELL

JRC67633

0885-6087,   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC67633,   

10.1002/hyp.9253,