The integration of PESETA sectoral economic impacts into the GEM-E3 Europe model: methodology and results.

Abstract

The PESETA project has estimated the physical effects of climate change in 11 Europe for the following impact categories with a market valuation: agriculture, river 12 floods, coastal systems and tourism. Four alternative scenarios of future climate change 13 have been considered. The computable general equilibrium (CGE) GEM-E3 model for 14 Europe has been used to integrate the PESETA damages under a consistent economic 15 framework. The approach followed has been to assess the effects of future climate (as of 16 2080s) on today’s economy. This article details the way each sectoral impact has been 17 integrated into the CGE model. The EU welfare loss is estimated to be in a range of 0.2% to 18 1%, depending on the climate future and the projected sea level rise. Results show that the 19 Southern Europe region appears as the most vulnerable area to climate change. Impacts in 20 coastal systems, agriculture and river floods determine the overall and regional pattern of 21 impacts within Europe.