Major accidents at chemical process industries, which are triggered by natural hazards, can have serious
consequences on the population, the natural and built environment, and the economy. Termed natechs, the risk
of such accidents is expected to increase in the future due to the growing number of industries, the occurrence
of larger-scale natural hazards due to climate change, and the vulnerability of the society that is becoming
gradually more interconnected. Adequate preparedness and proper emergency planning are needed for the
prevention of natechs and the mitigation of their consequences. For this purpose, natech-prone areas should be
identified and natech risk must be assessed in a methodical way. A recent survey has shown that hardly any
natech risk maps exist within the EU or OECD. Where existing, natech risk maps simply overlay natural and
technological hazards without considering site-specific features or interaction of hazards. The need for a proper
and systematic natech risk-mapping methodology is therefore evident.
In order to fill this gap a probabilistic natech risk-mapping methodology was developed. The methodology is
based on the calculation of damage probabilities at process and storage units of industrial facilities for different
damage states, and the estimation of the nature and extent of the consequences that can be caused by the
natural hazard damage. For damage assessment, on-site hazard parameters are calculated from hazard
scenarios and fragility curves are used to determine damage states and corresponding probabilities. For natech
risk assessment, damage states are converted into risk states that define probable consequence scenarios, and
the distance to endpoints of the consequences are calculated by using a simplified modeling approach used by
US EPA. The methodology is implemented as a web-based software application, RAPID-N, which allows easy
and user-friendly data entry, complementary data estimation, and rapid risk assessment. The results are
presented as summary reports and natech risk maps.
GIRGIN Serkan;
2012-12-12
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC68247
978-92-79-22722-6 (print),
978-92-79-22723-3,
1018-5593 (print),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 25164 EN,
OP LB-NA-25164-EN-C (print),
OP LB-NA-25164-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC68247,
10.2788/53062 (print),
10.2788/54044 (online),
