The savings of energy saving: interactions between energy supply and demand-side options - quantification for Portugal

Focusing on supply-side energy policies, like supporting large renewable electricity plants, without simultaneously looking for opportunities in the demand-side, may generate avoidable costs. Reducing demand by increasing energy efficiency may have advantages in reducing fossil dependency and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. This paper addresses interactions between energy supply and demand side policies, by estimating the impact of end-use energy-efficiency & renewables applications in terms of (i) avoided electricity generation capacity, (ii) final energy consumption, (iii) share of renewables in final energy and, (iv) reduction of GHG emissions. The Portuguese energy system is used as a case-study. The bottom-up model TIMES_PT was used generate four scenarios till 2020 corresponding to different levels of efficiency of equipment in buildings, transport and industry. In the current policy scenario, the deployment of end-use equipments follows the 2000-2005 trends and the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan targets. In the efficient scenarios, all equipments can be replaced with more efficient ones. Results show that aggressive industry and buildings demand-side measures can make the increase in renewable electricity capacity with approximately 4.7 GW as discussed by policy-makers superfluous. These measures reduce only 0-2% of total final energy, but this represents reduction of 11-14% in the commercial sector, with savings in total energy system costs of approximately 3000 M€2000 - roughly the equivalent to 2% of the 2010 GDP. The cost-effectiveness of policy measures should guide choices between supply shifts and demand reduction. Such balanced policy development can lead to substantial cost reductions in climate and energy policy.

GAGO DA CAMARA SIMOES Sofia;  SEIXAS Julia;  FORTES Patricia;  HUPPES Gjalt; 

2013-10-17

SPRINGER

JRC68842

1570-646X,   

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12053-013-9217-7,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC68842,   

10.1007/s12053-013-9217-7,