National GHG emissions reduction pledges and 2°C: comparison of studies

This paper provides further detail based on the Emissions Gap Report (United Nations Environment Programme, December 2010) on expected global greenhouse gas emission levels in 2020, assuming the emission reduction proposals in the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements are met. We find large differences in individual group’s results owing to uncertainties in current and projected emission estimates and in the interpretation of the reduction proposals. But regardless of these uncertainties, the pledges for 2020 are expected to deliver emission levels above those being consistent with a 2°C limit. This emissions gap could be narrowed through implementing the more stringent, conditional pledges, minimising the use of “lenient” credits from forests and surplus emission units, avoiding double-counting of offsets and implementing measures beyond current pledges. Conversely, emission reduction gains from countries moving from their low to high ambition pledges could be more than offset by the use of “lenient” LULUCF credits and surplus emissions units, were these used to the maximum. Laying the groundwork for faster emission reduction rates after 2020 appears to be crucial in any case.

HOHNE Niklas;  TAYLOR Christopher;  ELIAS Ramzi;  DEN ELZEN Michel;  CHEN Claudine;  RIAHI Keywan;  ROGELJ Joeri;  GRASSI Giacomo;  WAGNER Fabian;  LEVIN Kelly;  MASSETTI Emanuele;  XIUSHENG Zhao; 

2012-11-08

TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD

JRC69177

1752-7457,   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC69177,   

10.1080/14693062.2011.637818,