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|Title:||Potential Response of Soil-Borne Fungal Pathogens Affecting Crops to a Scenario of Climate Change in Europe|
|Authors:||MANICI Luisa; DONATELLI Marcello; FUMAGALLI DAVIDE; LAZZARI A.; BREGAGLIO Simone|
|Citation:||Proceedings of the sixth biannial meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society. Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Pathways and Visions under Uncertainty. Sixth Biennial Meeting, Leipzig, Germany p. 649-657|
|Publisher:||International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs)|
|Type:||Articles in periodicals and books|
|Abstract:||A study was carried out on the potential response of soil-borne pathogens causing crop yield losses under a climate change scenario in Europe. A controlled chamber set of experiments was carried out to quantify pathogen response to temperature using pure colonies of three soil-borne fungi, representative of low (Fusarium nivale), medium-high (Athelia rolfsii) and high (Macrophomina phaseolina) temperature requirements. A generic model to simulate fungal growth response to temperature based on these experiments was developed and linked to a soil temperature model component, and to components to simulate soil water content also as resulting from crop water uptake. Pathogens relative growth was simulated over Europe using a IPCC A1B emission scenario derived from the Hadley-CM3 global climate model, available from the European Commission and suitable for use with biophysical models. Two climate scenarios were compared: the baseline, representing a sample of 30 years of daily weather centred on the year 2000, and 2030. The general trend of soil-borne pathogens response to scenario of climate change is a relative increased growth in colder areas of Europe, as a function of their temperature requirements. Projections of F. nivale in the future indicate a relative increase of this winter pathogen of wheat in Northern European countries. A. rolfsii and M. phaseolina, two soil-borne pathogens typical of warmer agricultural areas, could find more favourable conditions in areas of the Central Europe, but they differentiated in Southern Europe where A. rolfsii resulted affected by summer soil temperatures above optimum.|
|JRC Directorate:||Sustainable Resources|
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