Title: Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment
Authors: Ivits EvaCHERLET MichaelTOTH GergelySOMMER StefanMEHL WolfgangVOGT JuergenMICALE Fabio
Citation: GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE vol. 88-89 p. 85-97
Publication Year: 2012
JRC N°: JRC70277
ISSN: 0921-8181
URI: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112000562
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.03.010
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: The projected influence of climate change on the timing and volume of phytomass production is expected to affect a number of ecosystem services. In order to develop coherent and locally effective adaptation and mitigation strategies, spatially explicit information on the observed changes is needed. Long-term variations of the vegetative growing season in different environmental zones of Europe for 1982-2006 have been derived by analysing time series of GIMMS NDVI data. The associations of phenologically homogenous spatial clusters to time series of temperature and precipitation data were evaluated. North-East Europe showed a trend to an earlier and longer growing season, particularly in the northern Baltic areas. Despite the earlier greening up large areas of Europe exhibited rather stable season length indicating the shift of the entire growing season to an earlier period. The northern Mediterranean experience a growing season shift towards later dates while some agglomerations of earlier and shorter growing season were also seen. The correlation of phenological time series with climate data shows a cause-effect relationship over the semi natural areas consistent with results in literature. Managed ecosystems however appear to have heterogeneous change pattern with less or no correlation to climatic trends. Over these areas climatic trends seemed to overlap in a complex manner with more pronounced effects of local biophysical conditions and/or land management practices. Our results underline the importance of satellite derived phenological observations to explain local nonconformities to climatic trends for climate change impact assessment.
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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